Author Topic: The Black Lantern Corps Presents: Welcome to Pancho Land! - Night Four Begins  (Read 1445 times)

GM Lucas

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Voltron3030 was the first to push for a vote and then went for the safe vote of a guy about to get modkilled. That seems scummy. I say with us not knowing anyone we just commit to a guy to lynch and do it. I'm for Voltron3030.

I agree with Gooch. To jump to a safe vote like Voltron did at the end leads me to believe he might be scum and it is easier to get everyone to vote on a inactive player he knows will be modkilled then trying to convince everyone to vote Revcotton. even after he doubled down.

I believe he knows or has an idea that a no vote/no post participant has to be someone with a sucky role like vanilla anything. I feel to jump on an inactive player is a self preserving move especially since he made sure to double down on his vote claiming he couldn't see older votes.

Voting for an inactive is pointless considering that it was already stated in the rules that inactives get modkilled. It was also a wasted vote which is what scum would want everyone to do. Unless someone else comes with sound proof that we should go after another player I know where my vote is going next. 

GM Gravedigger

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Fair enough. We're just already down 2 town... seems hasty to me to be pushing for a vote without any real, substantial information. Hopefully someone will come forward with something that is actually tangible and not just throwing shit at a wall and praying it sticks.

True. But unless someone comes forward with info we're flying blind. I guess we should wait to make final decisions, but so far Gooch's theory is the best I've heard.

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GM Jon

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You're right there, which puts the town at a distinct added disadvantage because we currently can't lynch a player based on what is said here in the night thread because we can't confirm QT Username identities. 

The scum is also liable to try to appear different in regards to posting habits, activity level, and or grammar/expressions than they do here as to protect themselves if they get caught in either day or night phase.
 

Exactly, so pretty much it allows scum to pick off the town member at night that might appear the best and then we get into day in the QT and canít come to any agreement on anything.

Itís probably more important in this game then in games past to come to a lynch.



  

GM Gates

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True. But unless someone comes forward with info we're flying blind. I guess we should wait to make final decisions, but so far Gooch's theory is the best I've heard.

I was going to say this exact thing. At this point itís all weíve got.

GM Eli

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What do we learn from a random lynch, though? If we're lucky enough to guess right on scum sure we've knocked one off but we're not any closer to figuring anything out. I'm still not sold on an early lynch just because. Already down two town. Guess wrong and we're down another two or, at best, someone is forced to use an ability they might not have been otherwise. I don't know man going for a lynch on nothing this early on without more to go on just doesn't seem like the right choice to me.

GM Jon

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What do we learn from a no lynch each day phase?



  

GM Eli

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What do we learn from losing two town instead of one?

GM Jon

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What do we learn from losing two town instead of one?

The chance to lynch scum.



  

Talon

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You look at who voted on the Lynch and try to deduce who is the innocent parites and who were on the Lynch knowing the person was town.

The scum will always jump on a Lynch when they can.

I am curious though, I hope the scum has to lynxh a user name and not our real name, to level the playing field, but we won't know that until after the fact.
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GM Kirk [21|May 12:29 AM]:   When trade fever hits, math is the first casualty.

GM Kirk

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I don't think anyone is suggesting we quick lynch Voltron, but he's a good point to focus discussion around and the best option to take out at the moment.

GM Powers

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What do we learn from a random lynch, though? If we're lucky enough to guess right on scum sure we've knocked one off but we're not any closer to figuring anything out. I'm still not sold on an early lynch just because. Already down two town. Guess wrong and we're down another two or, at best, someone is forced to use an ability they might not have been otherwise. I don't know man going for a lynch on nothing this early on without more to go on just doesn't seem like the right choice to me.

To echo and expand on what Talon said, you can learn a lot from analyzing lynches.  Who started the ball rolling?  Who hammered it home?  Who slipped onto the lynch train quietly?  Who pushed it hardest?  Who tried their best to avoid the lynch entirely?

Now, your conclusions to those questions may or may not be correct, but it is that sort of thinking which will allow you to form opinions of players outside of night actions.  And then we talk about it in thread, and come to a consensus as to who to lynch.


GM Kirk

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That's how the game is supposed to work, except we never seem to lynch anyone until it's too late on these boards. Having two of our own kill themselves during day 1 will make it a lot harder.

GM Powers

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Unfortunately there are a lot of gun shy people. 


Talon

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Unfortunately there are a lot of gun shy Inactive people. 
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GM Kirk [21|May 12:29 AM]:   When trade fever hits, math is the first casualty.

GM T-Bone

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Fair enough. We're just already down 2 town... seems hasty to me to be pushing for a vote without any real, substantial information. Hopefully someone will come forward with something that is actually tangible and not just throwing shit at a wall and praying it sticks.

What "real, substantial" information are you looking for exactly?

GM T-Bone

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Oh I see, Eli is completely new to mafia. My bad.

Basically, no lynching is a pro-scum move. The lynch is the only killing mechanic that the town collectively controls. Not using it means that town can't remove scum. Yeah sure, scum get a say in the lynch too, but they are the minority. Yeah sure, sometimes you mislynch town. That's okay, it still tells you more about the other players than not lynching does.

I can show you the statistics if you want, but I'd hope you just take my word for it. Statistically every no lynch reduces town win-rates. Why? Because a no lynch gives scum a free kill on the back end.

Imagine this. Every Day/Night phase, there are two kills. Kill #1 is the lynch, Kill #2 is the mafia kill. Kill #2 has a 0% chance to kill mafia (unless there are multiple mafia teams, but let's say there isn't because that is usually bad game design). Kill #1, if used randomly, has a ~25% to hit scum. So, if we lynch randomly, each day/night phase we have ~12% chance to kill scum. Over the course of the game, that percentage increases as we remove players from the potential pool. So, if you do the math (I'm going to estimate), that's 12% on Day 1, 19% on Day 2, and 38% Day 3. If we no lynch on Day 1, all those chances drop drastically. We're literally leaving chances to kill mafia on the table. No lynch on Day 1...0% chance. No lynch on Day 2, 0% chance. Now we try on Day 3...and we only have a 15% to kill scum when we could have had a 38% chance.

Now...we don't lynch randomly. We make informed decisions based on the play of other players, based on night results, etc. Plus, you know that you are town, so that's one less possibility from your perspective.

But, a no lynch guarantees that mafia do not get killed.

There is a reason mafia is a minority. It is okay for town members to get killed.

GM Pancho

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NIGHT ONE

Shivering in the cold everyone continues to help each other stay awake.  The moonlight begins to fade away but before it can leave another harrowing howl is heard

"HE'S COMING BACK!!!!!!!"


The Werewolf formerly known as Pancho jumps out from behind a set of trees.  He rises up on his hind legs and snarls at the moonlight and as he prepares to launch himself into another attack the first rays of sunshine peek over the horizon.  He jumps after his particpants but in mid pounce loses his momentum and falls to the ground.  His body contorts into the fetal position as he lets out whimpers that transition from a dog being put down to a grown man crying.  His clothes torn and tattered he is drenched in sweat

"Oh god ... not again ... I have to apologize to you all.  This is a curse I've carried with myself since my youth.  My curiosity got the better of me in our second world.  You see the occult and the supernatural have always peaked my interest.  I've known enough human being to know that monsters are real.  So I went looking for monsters that might be real human ... and instead I ended up one."

Now Pancho looks down at the bodies of two fallen members of our party.  He recognizes the signature slash marks.  He looks at his own nails looking at a nearly black subtance thats ingrained itself under his fingernails.

"I've got to get cleaned up before I get too sick.  But I warn you - entering this world things won't always be what they say they are. I still don't know what's different from when we first started.  Now I look around and things continue to change - but are they changing into the werewolf or are they changing into me?"

WELCOME TO THE DARK UNIVERSE - CITY UNKNOWN



A new adventure awaits you. Don't forget to take a look around but be CAREFUL!!  Things are always changing. Don't let what changes - change who you are AND DON'T FORGET THE RULES OF THE GAME!!

https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/vJaPtGeWxKVJ

THERE IS NO MORE POSTING IN THIS THREAD TILL NIGHT PHASE BEGINS ...





GM Pancho

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DAY TWO RESULTS


6 - Voltron3030 - VintageBeef, KingofTroy11, PaladinMuffins, JunkieTom, RevCottonMarcus, ChampChong,

1 - PaladinMuffins - Estaban85

Not Voting - JewBoiFresh, Stallion83, MSgates123

"... So you've made your choice.  Very well then."

Pancho pulls out a revolver from behind his waistband and fires a bullet straight through the eyes of Voltron3030.  Everyone sort of stands around looking what is going.  They look down at the man whose been shot in the head as his face begins to morph ...


DEAD: Gooch - Voltron3030 - Vanilla Town

" ... Hope this bring some answers to you boys.  He was a good man.  I'll miss the sweet tea. Not the BBQ rib stains ... man ate like a duck ... didn't even chew ..."

NIGHT PHASE WILL LAST FOR 48 HOURS ... DAY WILL RESUME AGAIN ONCE MORE AT 9 PM PST ON WEDNESDAY ...


Players List
Ed
Kirk
Eli
Powers
Gravedigger
Talon
Bone
Jon
Metro
Gates
 
« Last Edit: August 08, 2018, 12:06:07 PM by GM Pancho »



GM Jon

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Da fuq?



  

GM Kirk

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Is there some sort of secret advantage to getting yourself killed in this game?

GM Eli

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Yeah I'm at a loss right now.

GM Lucas

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I wonder in this twisted world of Pancho Gooch was granted some unforeseen power to be a ghost to guide town through PM's.

Now we must remember the one rule in this entire World of Pancho is that things keep changing. This could just be a last minute provision to get everyone on their heels.

I think we shouldn't put to much into this weird twist which is clearly to throw us off and examine previous night and day phase post.


GM Jon

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The only thing I can think of is he had his other ďroleĒ as a jester. Otherwise I donít understand that play at all.



  

GM Powers

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GM Gates

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I guess thatís what you get for rushing a lunch like that.

Iíd assume thereís more to it. There has to be.

GM Jon

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Nothing I ate more than rushing a lunch.



  

Talon

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🤯🔫
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GM Kirk [21|May 12:29 AM]:   When trade fever hits, math is the first casualty.

GM Gates

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Nothing I ate more than rushing a lunch.

Indigestion man. Itís a bitch.


GM Kirk

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I think he pushed the Voltron bandwagon to distance himself from the QT version of himself but didn't expect it to gain so much traction so quickly. He knew he was done for, so he just had fun with his demise.

GM Gravedigger

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I wonder in this twisted world of Pancho Gooch was granted some unforeseen power to be a ghost to guide town through PM's.

Now we must remember the one rule in this entire World of Pancho is that things keep changing. This could just be a last minute provision to get everyone on their heels.

I think we shouldn't put to much into this weird twist which is clearly to throw us off and examine previous night and day phase post.

That would certainly be a twist....

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GM T-Bone

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Shockingly I agree with Kirk. Since it is against the rules to hint who you are, I can see that. Plus, when do we ever lynch before Day 4 anyway? It was a safe bet.

GM Powers

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Without going into specifics, has anyone seen/noticed any of that 'change' the Mod keeps talking about?


GM T-Bone

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Yeah I'm pretty sure someone is a vanillaizer.

GM Lucas

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So then you think Gooch was a jester and got, got?

GM Gravedigger

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Yeah I'm pretty sure someone is a vanillaizer.

Is this a regular role or #lolPancho?

Either way (if or if not there is a vanillaizer) I think this game is a bit outside of the regular box so thinking about other games have played out and how roles have been utilized could be way off...

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GM Metroll

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One thing I note is ten players alive but only nine people listed in final vote count. msGates123 is missing. Mod can you confirm that that post is correct and not an oversight?

I also would tend to believe that Gooch had a role change at some point.

Talon

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I have some theories...

1 - Gooch was indeed just vanilla.  We've seen him tantrum-vote himself in the past and/or throw in the towel when he's not a power role, so it's easy to see how he wasn't into the game and set himself up for a vote out of the game.  Not good for the town in any way, but if he hit his wincon as a Jester we would've known in the reveal/write up, or else whats the point?

2 - If this game has a mafia/town split like a normal game, we're already down 3 townies meaning we could be 3-4 bad decision away from end game already, those two modkills basically blew through two days worth of no-lynch/nightkill results if this were a standard game. 

3 - If this isn't a standard game, I could also see this being a Cultafia type game where the mafia isn't a mafia, it's a Cult.  We didn't see a kill at night yet, so it could be that the Cult has to recruit the right person to gain a kill etc?  It's a wild idea, but it could be a balance to the fact that we as town have no idea who anyone is.  My theory is that the Cult can recruit but only based on usernames, the same way we have to lynch, so they wouldn't know who they were recruiting until they get that person in their cult.

if that is the case, we are looking at N0, N1, and N2 of possible recruits, so we could already be at a 4-scum team, leaving us with a 6-4 town:scum ratio, again meaning one or two mislynches now could be end game.

SO lets take a look at the lynch on Gooch, shall we?



Quote
6 - Voltron3030 - VintageBeef, KingofTroy11, PaladinMuffins, JunkieTom, RevCottonMarcus, ChampChong,

1 - PaladinMuffins - Estaban85


With 11 Alive it only takes 6 of you to lynch ... that means JewBoiFresh and Stallion83 while voting for Voltron3030 did not count.

Let's get out of this world and see the results.

Not Voting - JewBoiFresh, Stallion83, MSgates123


On the lynch
- VintageBeef
- KingOfTroy11
-PaladinMuffins
-JunkieTom
-RevCottonMarcus
-ChampChong

Not on the lynch
- Estaban85 (voted for PaladinMuffins)
- JewBoiFresh
-Stallion83
-MSgates123


Metro wasn't active during the phase (on the ESPN boards/HIFL) so I am leaning towards him being one of the non-voters, but that is just an opinion.





THEORIES FROM THE QT:

Stallion83 believes

Quote
Eli is pm

Estaban is Powers

Beef is Talon


VintageBeef believes

Quote
Estaban is Powers

The rest of his day one list was proven wrong. (saying Voltron = Kirk, Estaban = Franchise, JBFresh = Gooch)




Anyone have any theories on who is who, and who might be worth looking at on that lynch?


Quote
GM Kirk [21|May 12:29 AM]:   When trade fever hits, math is the first casualty.

GM Eli

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Just throwing this out there because Talon's post made me think of this. If it's possible that there is a vanilla-izer, could it be possible that Gooch WAS a Jester and his role was switched on him to prevent him hitting his wincon? Not sure if that's even a possibility but I figured I'd ask. Only reason I question it being Gooch just tossing in the towel is that he said something along the lines of "you guys are jerks" after he had a few votes on him right after his initial post in the QT that seemed to be trying to draw a vote onto him.

GM Metroll

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I like #3 the most on your list Talon.

Talon

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I've definitely got my eyes on Powers.  A little fishing today and I was still uneasy on him from the prior night phase. 

Based on two players thinking Estaban being Powers, I think I'll put my vote their next phase.
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GM Kirk [21|May 12:29 AM]:   When trade fever hits, math is the first casualty.

GM Kirk

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I think it's a case of scum getting on a bandwagon as early as possible because they knew it had legs. I'd guess one of the first three and one of the last two is scum, so maybe voting Rev or Champ would actually have better odds. Scum didn't need to hammer, so I'll go with Rev

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Is this a regular role or #lolPancho?

Either way (if or if not there is a vanillaizer) I think this game is a bit outside of the regular box so thinking about other games have played out and how roles have been utilized could be way off...

Maybe Pancho will name it something different. It's typically (but not always) an anti-town role that turns people into vanilla townies.

GM Pancho

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One thing I note is ten players alive but only nine people listed in final vote count. msGates123 is missing. Mod can you confirm that that post is correct and not an oversight?

I also would tend to believe that Gooch had a role change at some point.

POST HAS BEEN CORRECTED - APOLOGIES



GM Gates

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Talons #3 has legs. We havenít seen a kill yet so maybe thereís more under the surface then a kill for the mafia/cult/whoever. Iíve only ever played in games with a recruiting mechanism so perhaps that could be something we are dealing with.

GM Powers

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Honestly, the setup of this game is throwing me for a loop. It's almost like there's 2 games happening at the same time, and I can't make heads or tails out of who's who, and what's what.


GM Kirk

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I'm inclined to believe that JewBoiFresh and Stallion83 are likely town because I don't see the mafia throwing their names on a lynch they know will flip town after the hammer has already dropped.

VintageBeef, Rev and MSgates are your mafia (assuming a standard 3 player mafia). If we have recruitment instead, you can add Paladin to the list. All based off the lynch of Gooch.

Beef voted first to get the bandwagon rolling, then Paladin waited for town to bite before jumping on to prompt a quick lynch. Rev jumped on to prevent the lynch from stalling (and make it a foregone conclusion), knowing there were plenty of town who would jump on. There was no.need for all the mafia to get on a town lynch, so MSgates stayed away.

I can't see a good reason for mafia trying to.stall the lynch or add a counter-wagon, so Estaban is clear in my eyes as well.

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I'm inclined to believe that JewBoiFresh and Stallion83 are likely town because I don't see the mafia throwing their names on a lynch they know will flip town after the hammer has already dropped.

VintageBeef, Rev and MSgates are your mafia (assuming a standard 3 player mafia). If we have recruitment instead, you can add Paladin to the list. All based off the lynch of Gooch.

Beef voted first to get the bandwagon rolling, then Paladin waited for town to bite before jumping on to prompt a quick lynch. Rev jumped on to prevent the lynch from stalling (and make it a foregone conclusion), knowing there were plenty of town who would jump on. There was no.need for all the mafia to get on a town lynch, so MSgates stayed away.

I can't see a good reason for mafia trying to.stall the lynch or add a counter-wagon, so Estaban is clear in my eyes as well.

Loath to agree on Gates given his jester comment. That too me does not sound like someone who's mafia.

GM Metroll

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and by Gates I mean msGates not Gates Gates ... that's even more confusing than Gates Gates actually being JewBoiFresh.

Talon

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I'm inclined to believe that JewBoiFresh and Stallion83 are likely town because I don't see the mafia throwing their names on a lynch they know will flip town after the hammer has already dropped.

VintageBeef, Rev and MSgates are your mafia (assuming a standard 3 player mafia). If we have recruitment instead, you can add Paladin to the list. All based off the lynch of Gooch.

Beef voted first to get the bandwagon rolling, then Paladin waited for town to bite before jumping on to prompt a quick lynch. Rev jumped on to prevent the lynch from stalling (and make it a foregone conclusion), knowing there were plenty of town who would jump on. There was no.need for all the mafia to get on a town lynch, so MSgates stayed away.

I can't see a good reason for mafia trying to.stall the lynch or add a counter-wagon, so Estaban is clear in my eyes as well.

So you don't think someone playing the way the player (who ended up being Gooch) played deserved to be lynched/was playing an anti-town game?
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GM Kirk [21|May 12:29 AM]:   When trade fever hits, math is the first casualty.

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They say they reacted to being voted read (to me anyway) as caught scum. To say I was shocked at a vanilla flip would be an understatement.